基于主体观点度演变的网络舆论形成模型研究

为了研究网络舆论的形成规律，本文以复杂适应系统（CAS）的视角，从舆论的构成要素出发，引入舆论主体（Agent）观点度的概念，分析了影响Agent（网络舆论话题参与者）观点度发生变化的相关因素并确定了观点度变化的规则，以Agent的影响力、辩论能力、自我坚持力度、活跃标志以及主流媒体、法律影响等相关因素为自变量建立了网络舆论形成模型；最后将该模型作适当工程简化后进行仿真试验，并对实验结果进行了分析。

Study on the Formation Models of Network Public Opinion Based on Incline Degrees of Opinions of Agents

To research the formation law of network public opinion, from the angle of theory of Complex Adaptive System (CAS) and started from the constitution of public opinion, this article introduced the concept of Incline Degree of Opinion of Agent for the first time, and analyzed the related factors influencing the changes of incline degree of opinion of agent and set up the rules for the changes. The authors then established a model with the influence of Agent, debating efficiency, self-supporting capability, active flag and the influences of mainstream media and law as the independent variables to explain the formation of network public opinion. Finally simulation experiments were carried out after simplifying this model and the experiment results were analyzed.