基于SWAN模式的黄渤海一次强冷空气研究

利用MICAPS、T639、日本传真图等资料,对2012年1月20日前后的一次强冷空气过程进行研究,并将各种预报产品和旅顺站预报经验相结合,对黄渤海的海表风场、海浪场进行预报和经验总结.此外,还利用NFS(Non-hydrostatic Forecast System)风场驱动SWAN(Simulating Waves Nearshore)模式,对此次冷空气所造成的大浪进行模拟,并将预报结果、模拟结果分别与观测资料进行对比,以提高预报能力和检验SWAN模式对发生在黄渤海的冷空气所致大浪的模拟能力.结果表明:以NFS风场为驱动场时,SWAN模式可以很好地对黄渤海海域的海浪场(含波高、波向)进行模拟,预报的风场、海浪场与观测资料基本一致；在高风速下,预报的波高与实测波高一致性较好,但在中低风速下,预报的波高略低于实测值.

Analysis of a cold air wave process in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea by using SWAN wave model

A cold air wave process happened in January 2012 in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea is analyzed by using MICAPS, T639 and Japanese radiofacsimile weather map. In order to improve the forecasting ability, we also simulated this cold air wave process by using SWAN （Simulating WAves Nearshore） wave model with NFS （Non-hydrostatic Forecast System） wind data as the driving field. Results show that： （1） With NFSwind data as driving field, SWAN wave model can well describe the waves caused by the cold air in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The forecasting wind field and forecasting wave field have good consistency with the ob- servation data. （2） The simulation significant wave height has good consistency with the observation value un- der strong wind. And the simulation significant wave height is slightly smaller than the observation value un- der weak wind.