基于模糊事件概率理论的水质风险率计算方法

针对水环境系统的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性，分析了影响水环境中水质风险的不完善性和模糊性因素，将水环境中水质风险作为一个模糊事件，利用模糊事件概率理论，提出了水环境水质超标的模糊随机风险率计算模型。通过引入模糊事件信息熵来评价隶属函数特征值取值的可靠程度，定量描述了隶属函数特征值与风险率的关系，进而计算出风险率。实例计算结果证明了方法的有效性。

Method for risk analysis of water quality based on fuzzy probabilistic theory

The imperfection and fuzziness affecting the water quality risk due to the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty are analyzed. The risk of water quality in water environment system is regarded as a fuzzy event to establish the fuzzy probabilistic model for calculating the risk rate to check if the water quality is exceeding the standard. The concept of information entropy of fuzzy event is introduced to assess the credibility of the selected characteristic value of the membership function, and then the relationship between characteristic value of membership function and risk rate is described quantitatively. Thus, the risk rate can be determined. The application example demonstrates that the proposed method is effective.