运输航空公司航油消耗规划目标预测方法研究

为了推算出运输航空公司能耗是否能够满足国家下达的指标要求,同时为运输航空公司节能减排提供决策支持,需要对运输航空公司航油消耗规划指标进行准确预判和制定。首先,对运输航空公司历史油耗数据以及影响因素进行分析,针对其历史数据的非线性和非平稳性特点以及预测过程中存在不确定影响因素等问题,从宏观趋势和具体因素两个角度出发,提出了改进能源弹性系数法和支持向量回归两种预测方法对航油消耗进行预测。并对预测结果合理性进行了分析,两种方法预测结果相互检验,最后得到运输航空公司能源规划指标。

Research on the forecast method of fuel consumption planning index for transport airlines

In order to calculate whether the transport airlines can meet the requirements of the national energy consumption indicators issued and provide decision support for energy saving and emission reduction for transport Airlines. Accurately predict the energy planning index of transport Airlines in the coming time is necessary. First, the historical data of fuel consumption and its influencing factors of transport Airlines are analyzed. According to the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the historical data and the uncertain factors in the prediction process, two kinds of prediction methods which are energy elasticity coefficient method and the support vector regression are put forward. Finally, from two aspects of macro trends and specific factors, the energy planning index of the transport Airlines is got. In addition, the rationality of the forecasting results is analyzed, and the results of the two methods are cross checked.