配电系统短期可靠性评估方案

现有配电系统可靠性评估大多基于长期历史数据的平均可靠性，缺少对配电系统短期可靠性快速评估的模型及方法。针对配电网具体元件特点及短期内元件状态，提出一种配电系统短期可靠性评估方案，分别由基于失负荷的配电系统短期可靠性指标，基于改进条件相依的元件短期停运率模型以及基于前推故障扩散算法的配电系统短期可靠性评估分析方法。通过仿真分析，说明所定义的短期可靠性指标的实用性以及评估算法的有效性，为配电系统的短期现场运行提供理论基础与调度指导。

Short-term Reliability Assessment Scheme for Distribution System

The majority of the existing reliability assessments of distribution system are for long-term average reliability. The reliability assessment for short-term or online operation is rare. Considering the characteristics and short-term conditions of elements in distribution system, this paper proposes a short-term reliability assessment scheme for distribution system, which adds the load loss conditions to define short-term reliability indices of distribution system, and uses the improved conditions dependent element model to obtain short-term outage rates, and the forward failure diffusion algorithm to evaluate and analyze the short-term reliability of the distribution system. Through simulation analysis, the feasibility of the short-term reliability indices and the effectiveness of short-term reliability model are confirmed, which may provide a theoretical basis and dispatching guidance for short-term operations of distribution systems.