基于熵权法的西安市水资源系统评价研究

针对水资源评价中各指标的不确定性与模糊性,在用熵权法对各指标赋权基础上构建水资源系统评价方法。对西安市水资源系统从相对承载力、脆弱度、水贫困、和谐度4个方面进行整体评价,并分析变化趋势。计算结果表明:①西安市水资源系统相对于陕西全省来说长期处于超载状态,尤其是经济承载力超载部分长期处于可承载能力的3倍以上;②西安市水资源系统整体呈中等脆弱,其脆弱性突出表现在旱灾方面;③西安市水贫困的主要障碍因子为利用能力,用水效率的低下造成了水贫困日益严重;④西安市水资源循环利用与经济发展有序度逐年提高,但二者和谐性较差,和谐度远低于0.8,说明水资源循环利用模式远滞后于高速的经济发展,未来西安市水资源循环利用依旧有较大发展潜力。研究结果对西安市水利事业未来发展方向具有一定参考价值。

Study on evaluation of water resources system in Xi'an City based on entropy weight method

In view of the uncertainty and ambiguity of the indicators in the evaluation of water resources,the meth?od of evaluating water resources system is constructed on the basis of the empowerment of the entropy right meth?od to each index.The water resources system in Xi'an is evaluated from the four aspects of relative carrying capaci?ty,vulnerability,water poverty and harmonious degree,and the changing trend is analyzed.The results show that:①Xi'an water resources system is in a state of overload relative to Shaanxi Province for a long time,especial?ly the overloaded part of the economy is more than 3 times the carrying capacity for a long time;②The water re?sources system of Xi'an is moderately vulnerable,and its vulnerability is prominently manifested in drought;③The main obstacle to water poverty in Xi'an is the utilization capacity,and the low water efficiency has caused the increasingly serious trend of water poverty;④The order of water resources recycling and economic develop?ment in Xi'an has been increasing year by year,but the harmonious degree between the two is poor and is much lower than 0.8,which shows that the mode of water resources recycling lags far behind the high-speed economic development.The recycling of water resources in the future will still have great potential for development.The re?sults of the study have some reference value to the future development direction of water conservancy in Xi'an.