考虑施工进度影响的锦屏一级水电站导流全过程风险分析

在传统的导流风险分析中,较少考虑进度不确定因素,并且没有把各导流时段联系起来分析导流全过程的导流风险.基于此,以锦屏一级水电站大坝施工为背景,将导流过程分为3个时段,分别对进度系统和导流系统进行分析研究,采用进度风险描述进度不确定性因素,采用时段导流风险描述水文和水力不确定因素,并根据进度和导流系统的时间一致性和分段一致性,进行耦合处理,建立概率树分析模型,评价考虑进度不确定性的导流全过程综合风险.揭示进度不确定性因素对导流综合风险的作用关系,为施工组织管理与导流标准的选择提供科学依据.

Whole construction diversion course risk analysis of Jinping first stage hydropower station considering influence of construction schedule

There was little chance to think about the uncertain factor of construction schedule in the traditional construction diversion analysis,and the diversion times are not analyzed together so diversion risk of the diversion entire course was not analyzed.The dam construction of Jinjing first stage hydropower station is taken as an example,the construction diversion process is divided into three phases,and both the schedule system and the diversion system are studied.The uncertain factor of schedule is described as schedule risk rate and the hydrological and hydraulic uncertain factors are described as period diversion risk rate.Then according to the time consistency and piecewise consistency of the two systems,the two systems can be coupled and the probability tree analysis model can be established.Comprehensive risk in which indeterminacy on schedule is considered of the whole diversion course is computed.The effect of the uncertain factor of schedule on the diversion risk is disclosed,so as to provide the basic data for construction organization and management as well as the choice of diversion standard.