中国与“一带一路”国家能源贸易合作对能源安全的影响

近年来全球政治与经济的不确定风险逐渐加大，不利于维护产业安全和稳定的“逆全球化”思潮开始抬头。为了探讨中国与“一带一路”国家的能源合作可否对冲“逆全球化”带来的不利影响，深入分析国际能源合作对参与各国、各地区能源安全产生的作用及其背后的影响机制，本文以2000—2020年为观测期，尝试在“一带一路”合作倡议框架之下，从能源合作产业链下游的能源贸易入手，运用Tobit模型和基础回归模型，从能源消费、能源生产2个维度出发，探究中国与“一带一路”国家开展能源贸易合作对参与各国能源安全产生的影响及其影响机制，并且进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明：1)中国与“一带一路”国家开展能源贸易能够维护我国的能源消费安全和能源生产安全；2）提升中国与“一带一路”国家的能源贸易总额能够通过降低合作能源消费国的能源使用成本，提高这些国家的能源消费安全水平；3）提升中国与“一带一路”国家的能源贸易总额能够通过促进合作能源生产国的经济增长，提高这些国家的能源生产安全水平；4）受地理位置影响，中国与“一带一路”沿线亚洲国家开展能源贸易合作产生的能源安全正向效应相较于其他地区更为显著。研究结论与建议如下：1）中国与“一带一路”国家开展能源贸易合作对于推动参与各国经济可持续发展、维护能源安全、实现“一带一路”沿线共同繁荣具有正向的影响作用；2）为了维护我国与“一带一路”国家的能源安全，应当不断扩大、深化“一带一路”国家之间的能源合作，推进能源贸易多元化，并持续优化国际合作环境，为国际能源贸易创造良好的外部条件；3）为了抵御外部各种不利因素对我国参与的国际能源贸易构成的安全威胁，应不断提升我国综合实力，以保障国际间能源运输通道的安全和顺畅；4）为了保障“一带一路”参与各国能源的可持续发展，应大力推动中国与“一带一路”国家间清洁能源和新能源的国际合作，促进参与各国变革能源生产方式和能源消费方式。

IMPACTS OF CHINA'S ENERGY TRADE COOPERATION WITH“THE BELT AND ROAD” NATIONS ON ENERGY SECURITY

As uncertain risks are rising in global politics and economy, anti-globalization which is harmful for industrial security and stability begin to arise. To discuss if China’s energy trade cooperation with “the Belt and Road” nations can offset the adverse impacts of anti-globalization and deeply analyze the role of international energy cooperation on the energy security of participating countries and regions and the underlying impact mechanism. This paper attempts to uses Tobit model and basic regression model to study the impacts of China’s energy trade cooperation with “the Belt and Road” nations on energy security during 2000 to 2020 under “the Blet and Road Proposal” from energy consumption and production with robustness tested. Results show China can guarantee itself energy consumption security and energy production security under China’s energy trades with “the Belt and Road” nations. Increasing the total energy trade between China and “the Belt and Road” nations can improve the energy consumption security level of these nations by reducing the energy use costs of cooperative energy consuming nations. Also can improve the energy production security level of these nations by promoting economic growth of cooperative energy producing nations. Constrained by the geographic location, the positive effect of energy trade cooperation between China and Asian countries along  “the Belt and Road” is more significant than that of other regions. This paper concludes that China’s energy trade with “the Belt and Road” nations can positively promote their economic sustainability, guarantee energy security and reach a mutual bloom. In order to maintain the energy security of China and  “the Belt and Road” nations, we should constantly expand and deepen the energy cooperation between  “the Belt and Road” nations, promote the diversification of energy trade, continue to optimize the international cooperation environment, and create good external conditions for international energy trade. To resist the security threats posed by various external adverse factors to China’s participation in international energy trade, China should constantly enhance its comprehensive strength to ensure the safety and smoothness of international energy transport channels. For a sustainable energy development, China shall boost its’ international cooperation with “the Belt and Road” nations on clean and new energies and reform their energy production and consumption ways.