逆全球化背景下“一带一路”沿线国家矿产资源投资风险评价

与“一带一路”沿线国家合作开发矿产资源有助于弥补国内矿产资源的供给不足，但是对沿线国家矿产资源投资存在较大的不确定性，具有多种形式的潜在风险，尤其是在逆全球化趋势明显的今天。为深入研究逆全球化背景下沿线国家矿产资源投资风险，论文从政治风险、经济风险、自然环境风险、资源开采风险以及逆全球化风险五个维度出发，构建了矿产资源海外投资风险指标评价体系，通过熵权法确定指标权重，运用Topsis综合评价模型对2009—2020年“一带一路”沿线18个矿产资源丰富的国家进行矿业投资风险评价，根据评价的结果采用GM(1,1)模型对2021—2025年“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险等级进行划分。结果表明：1）资源开采风险、自然环境风险是矿业投资风险的主要因素，而逆全球化风险也成为当前国际局势下进行矿业投资不可忽略的风险因素；2）处于中风险—低风险状态的国家，风险等级逐渐朝着低风险状态发展，处于高风险—中风险状态的国家，风险等级朝着中风险状态发展，沿线国家的风险等级整体是降低的，所评价国家的风险随着“一带一路”倡议的推进整体是朝着降低的趋势发展；3）2021—2025年18个沿线国家中，乌兹别克斯坦、越南、俄罗斯、泰国、老挝和柬埔寨属于低风险投资国家；土耳其、印度、阿根廷、乌克兰、蒙古和印度尼西亚属于中风险投资国家；塔吉克斯坦、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚、菲律宾、吉尔吉斯坦和波兰属于高风险投资国家。

RISK ASSESSMENT OF MINERAL RESOURCES INVESTMENT IN “THE BELT AND ROAD” NATIONS UNDER ANTI-GLOBALIZATION

Cooperation with “the Belt and Road” nation in developing their mineral resources can compensate China's mineral supply, but uncertainty exists with potential risks under the current anti-globalization. This paper, aiming at assess the risks, establishes a risk assessment index system of overseas mineral resources investment in “the Belt and Road” nations from political risks, economic risks, natural environmental risks, mining risks and anti-globalization risks. Indictor weights are given via entropy, and Topsis comprehensive assessment model is used to evaluate mineral resources investment risks in 18 “the Belt and Road” nations which have abundant mineral resources during 2009 to 2020, with risks classified in “the Belt and Road” nations during 2021 to 2025 according to GM(1, 1) model. The results show: 1) Mining investment risks are mainly derived from resources mining and natural environment, but anti-globalization risk can not be ignored; 2) Nations with medium to low risks develop to a low risk status, and those with high to medium risks develop to medium risk status. Generally nations' risks in “the Belt and Road” are decreasing as “the Belt and Road” initiative advances; 3) Among 18 nations in “the Belt and Road” in 2021 to 2025, investment risk is low in Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Russia, Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, medium in Turkey, India, Argentina, Ukraine, Mongolia and Indonesia, and high in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Philippines, Kyrgyzstan and Poland.