基于蒙特卡罗方法的风电场有功出力的概率性评估

风电具有随机性和间歇性的特点,常规确定性方法已无法准确评估风电场有功出力情况。为了解决此问题,引入概率性方法对风电场出力进行评估。考虑运行、停运和降额状态,建立了风电机组的多状态故障模型。在此基础上,考虑风速的随机性、风电场尾流效应建立了风电场的可靠性模型。基于此模型,应用蒙特卡罗方法给出了风电场有功出力概率评估的方法和流程。在Matlab中编写了相关程序,并对风电场的有功出力进行了概率评估,分析了不同可靠性参数和模型参数对评估结果的影响,从中可以看出风速模型中形状参数和尺度参数对评估结果影响较大。

Probabilistic assessment of wind farm active power based on Monte-Carlo simulation

The conventional deterministic methods can not accurately assess the active power output of the wind farm due to the randomness and intermittence of wind power, and the probabilistic methods are commonly used to solve this problem. In this paper the multi-state fault model is built considering run, outage and derating state of wind turbine, and then based on the turbine failure model, the reliability model of the wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed and the wind farm wake effects. The active wind farm output probability assessment methods and processes are given based on the Monte Carlo method based on the above-mentioned model. The related programs are written in MATLAB, and the probability assessment for active power output of a wind farm is carried out, based on which the effects of reliability parameters and model parameters on assessment results are analyzed. The results show that the shape parameter and scale parameter of wind speed model have a greater impact on the results of the assessment.