计及转供电概率的配电网可靠性评估

由于线路间互相联络，配电网通常具有灵活的故障重构能力，因此其供电可靠性评估必须考虑联络线的转供容量。但传统方法忽略了联络线路负荷波动对其转供容量的影响，评估结果容易偏向乐观。通过计及联络线路转供容量的随机性，在此基础上提出了计及负荷转供电概率的城市配电网供电可靠性评估快速算法。采用美国PG&E 69节点配电系统对本文所提出的供电可靠性评估方法进行了分析验证．算例分析证明了本文所提方法的正确性，表明其能够更加全面客观地的评估配电网的供电可靠性。

Reliability Evaluation for Distribution System Considering Supply Probability

As a flexible network reconfiguration can be applied in a distribution system, of which reliability cannot be evaluated by common methods applied in normal distribution systems. In this paper, randomness of wind generators, solar generators and loads are considered and the formula for calculating probability of a load supplied by backup sources is derived. Then a new method for fast reliability evaluation, which includes the network reconfiguration and backup sources, is proposed. A reliability evaluation for different reconfiguration schemes based on the PG&E 69-node system in USA is performed by the proposal method. The results validate the theoretical analysis in this paper and indicate that the proposed method could comprehensively evaluate the reliability and thus provide theoretical basis of the self-healing control scheme formulation and evaluation.