Fuzzy belief propagation in constrained Bayesian networks with application to maintenance decisions |
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Authors: | Ke Wang Jian Zhou Mark Goh |
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Affiliation: | 1. School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1769-2800;2. School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7835-8879;3. Department of Analytics and Operations, NUS Business School and The Logistics Institute-Asia Pacific, National University of Singapore, Singapore https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3620-7658 |
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Abstract: | Bayesian networks have been widely applied to domains such as medical diagnosis, fault analysis, and preventative maintenance. In some applications, because of insufficient data and the complexity of the system, fuzzy parameters and additional constraints derived from expert knowledge can be used to enhance the Bayesian reasoning process. However, very few methods are capable of handling the belief propagation in constrained fuzzy Bayesian networks (CFBNs). This paper therefore develops an improved approach which addresses the inference problem through a max-min programming model. The proposed approach yields more reasonable inference results and with less computational effort. By integrating the probabilistic inference drawn from diverse sources of information with decision analysis considering a decision-maker's risk preference, a CFBN-based decision framework is presented for seeking optimal maintenance decisions in a risk-based environment. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is validated based on an application to a gas compressor maintenance decision problem. |
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Keywords: | Fuzzy Bayesian networks influence diagrams constraints maintenance decisions expected utility |
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