基于发电容量充裕度估计的发电公司检修策略

电力市场环境下,发电公司在制定下一年度的发电机组检修计划时,首先需要预测未来1年各交易时段的电价,并尽可能将检修安排在电价较低的时期内进行,以减少收益损失。针对装机容量不太充裕的电力现货市场中电价波动大、难以直接准确预测的问题,提出了首先基于历史数据模拟市场电价与发电容量充裕度之间的函数关系,然后根据负荷预测结果和对其他发电公司检修起始时间的概率估计求取系统发电容量充裕度,进而预测现货市场电价的新方法。在此基础上构造了基于机会约束规划的发电公司最优检修策略模型,给出了求解方法,并用算例进行了说明。

Maintenance Strategies for Generation Companies Based on the Estimation of Generation Capacity Adequacy

In making the maintenance scheduling decision of generating units in the electricity market environment, the generation companies concerned has to predict the market clearing prices of electricity in all trading periods in the next year so as to find the best maintenance strategy with the objective of profit loss minimization. However, it is quite difficult to accurately predict the market clearing prices since electricity prices exhibit highly volatile characteristics especially in electricity markets with small reserve margins or insufficient generation capacity adequacy. In order to avoid the problem of directly predicting the market clearing prices, an effort is made in this paper to develop a new approach for building the optimal maintenance strategy for generation companies based on the generation capacity adequacy. First, by employing historical market data the relationship between the market clearing price and the generation capacity adequacy is established, and then a method is presented for estimating the generation capacity adequacy in each trading period for the next year based the loads forecasted as well as the estimations of the maintenance scheduling of generating units owned by other generation companies. Finally, a chance constrained programming based approach is utilized for developing risk-constrained optimal maintenance strategies for generating units, and a sample example is served for demonstrating the essential features of the presented model and method.