Scenario analysis and management options for sustainable river basin management: Application of the Elbe DSS |
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| Authors: | Sven Lautenbach Neil Graf Ralf Seppelt Michael Matthies |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department for Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany;2. Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Barbarastr. 12, D-49069 Osnabrück, Germany;1. Division of Social Science & Division of Environment, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong;2. Institute of Water Policy, Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, Singapore;3. Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, USA;4. Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, USA;5. Departments of Environmental Sciences & Engineering and City & Regional Planning, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, USA;6. Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK;1. University Bonn, Institute for Geodesy and Geoinformation, Nußallee 1, 53115 Bonn, Germany;2. UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Computational Landscape Ecology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;3. Dresden University of Technology, Institute of Soil Science and Site Ecology, Pienner Str. 19, 01737 Tharandt, Germany;4. USDA, ARS, National Forage Seed Production Research Center, 3450 SW Campus Way, Corvallis, OR 97331-7102, USA;5. Martin-Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Faculty of Natural Sciences III, Institute of Geosciences, Germany;1. Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic;2. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Humanities, U K?í?e 8, 158 00 Prague 5, Czech Republic;3. Charles University in Prague, Environment Center, José Martího 407/2, 160 00 Prague 6, Czech Republic;1. University of California-Riverside, Center for Conservation Biology, 900 University Ave, Riverside, CA 92521, United States;2. Wisconsin Energy Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1552 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, United States;3. Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States;4. Wisconsin Institutes for Discovery, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 330 N Orchard St, Madison, WI 53715, United States;1. Department of Mathematics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, PR China;2. Center for Applied Mathematics of Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, PR China |
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| Abstract: | We developed a decision support system (DSS) for sustainable river basin management in the German Elbe catchment (～100,000 km2), called Elbe-DSS. The system integrates georeferenced simulation models and related data sets with a user friendly interface and includes a library function. Design and content of the DSS have been developed in close cooperation with end users and stakeholders. The user can evaluate effectiveness of management actions like reforestation, improvement of treatment plant technology or the application of buffer strips under the influence of external constraints on climate, demographic and agro-economic changes to meet water management objectives such as water quality standards and discharge control. The paper (i) describes the conceptual design of the Elbe-DSS, (ii) demonstrates the applicability of the integrated catchment model by running three different management options for phosphate discharge reduction (reforestation, erosion control and ecological-farming) under the assumption of regional climate change based on IPCC scenarios, (iii) evaluates the effectiveness of the management options, and (iv) provides some lessons for the DSS-development in similar settings. The georeferenced approach allows the identification of local inputs in sub-catchments and their impact on the overall water quality, which helps the user to prioritize his management actions in terms of spatial distribution and effectiveness. |
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