考虑降雨的下垫面变化对径流的影响分析

以下垫面覆被条件变化来表征的人类活动是水文循环研究中的核心问题,对流域发电、水资源管理以及社会经济可持续发展起到至关重要的影响。本文采用趋势分析法分析右江水电站控制流域内的年降雨量以及年径流量的变化特征及趋势,在利用Arc GIS分析流域下垫面变化的基础上,分别采用多元统计模型和考虑降雨的多元统计模型对径流系数进行模拟。结果表明年降雨量与年径流量的总体变化趋势是一致的,对年径流影响最大的要素是年降雨量,将降雨作为自变量放入回归模型后,模型拟合效果明显提高。

Impacts of underlying surface change on rainfall runoff

The human activity which is characterized by underlying surface change is the core issues of the hydrological cycle study and has important effects on hydroelectricity, water resource management and economy sustainable development. This paper analyzed the variation trends of annual rainfall and runoff in Youjiang Hydropower Station catchment by trend analysis method. Based on the analysis of underlying surface changes, the runoff coefficients were also simulated by using multivariate statistical analysis and multivariate statistical analysis considering rainfall. The results showed that the trends of annual rainfall and runoff were consistent, the main influencing factor of annual runoff was annual rainfall, which made the model better when the rainfall was regarded as one argument in the rainfall-runoff regression model.