考虑综合需求响应不确定性的电-气综合能源系统优化运行

为有效分析综合需求响应（integrated demand response，IDR）不确定性给系统安全稳定运行带来的影响，以电-气综合能源系统（integrated electricity-gas system，IEGS）为例，提出一种考虑IDR不确定性的IEGS优化运行模型。首先，根据基于能源价格的IDR项目实施特点，分析出IDR中的模糊性和概率性变量，建立相应的IDR不确定性模型；然后，以点估计法计算系统概率能量流，并将其计算结果作为机会约束，使在最小化IEGS运行成本的同时，保证系统运行的安全性。最后，以改进的IEEE-33节点电力系统和比利时20节点天然气系统构成的IEGS为例，验证所提模型和方法的有效性，并评估不确定性环境下系统的风电消纳能力。

Optimal Operation of Integrated Electricity-Gas System Considering Uncertainty of Integrated Demand Response

In order to effectively analyze the influence of integrated demand response (IDR) uncertainty on the security of system operation, an optimal operation model for integrated electricity-gas system (IEGS) considering the IDR uncertainty is proposed by taking the IEGS as an example. Firstly, according to the implementation characteristics of energy price-based IDR project, different types of IDR uncertainty models are established using the fuzzy method and probability method comprehensively. On this basis, the point estimation method is used to calculate the probabilistic energy flow of the system, and the calculation results are taken as chance constraints to minimize the operation costs of IEGS and ensure the security of the system. Finally, by taking the IEGS consisting of improved IEEE-33 power system and 20-node natural gas system for case study, the effectiveness of the proposed model and method are verified, and the wind power accommodation capacity of the system is evaluated under uncertainty context.