概率学的AGC先验定价和后验考核新方法

提出了一种在电力市场环境下自动发电控制（AGC）辅助服务的“概率学先验定价”和“统计学后验考核”的新方法，文中首先发展了概率学实用当量定价方法，该方法利用随机生产模拟技术和当量电价原理，事先评估出AGC的容量价值和为了提供AGC服务预留AGC容量而产生的机会损失成本，由此两项成本构成了AGC服务的先验价值和价格，进一步，利用实时记录，提出了一种基于统计学的后验考核和结算方法，即计算发电机组收到的AGC指令和实际执行的机组有功出力之间的“相关系数”，依此建立了基于概率学的AGC跟踪能力和服务质量的后验考核指标和结算方法，与此相应，还建议建立市场上有效的“AGC保证金制度”，最后，给出了以我国某电力系统数据为背景的算例，算例表明，该方法能很好地体现AGC平衡负荷随机波动的本质，也能很好地发挥当量电价方法的长处，再辅以市场上有效的AGC保证金制度，可成为一个很好的AGC定价和考核的新方法和新体制。

A NEW METHOD OF PROBABILISTIC PRIOR PRICING AND POSTERIOR ASSESSMENT FOR AGC

In this paper, a new method of probabilistic prior pricing and posterior assessment for AGC in electricity market is proposed. At first a stochastic prior pricing method for AGC is developed using the stochastic practical electricity value equivalent (sp EVE) pricing method involved the probabilistic production simulation of generation system, in which the AGC shadow capacity cost are evaluated. According to the AGC shadow capacity cost and its capacity discount loss for AGC service, the hourly AGC value is determined and withheld as an earnest money for AGC service in advance. At second, a new posterior AGC assessment and settlement method is developed, in which according to the operation record the correlation coefficient between AGC command and practical generated power of unit is computed to assess the units' AGC service quality. Then, according to the correlation coefficient of each unit, return the hourly AGC value to each unit. Government regulates the reconciliation (revenue and expenditure balance) of AGC service using a coefficient. Based on the method mentioned an earnest money system is suggested. Finally a case study is given.