我国脱碳路径与油公司能源转型策略研究

2015年，《巴黎协定》提出本世纪末全球平均气温较工业化前水平上升幅度控制在2 ℃之内，为积极应对气候变化，我国政府提出了“2030碳达峰，2060碳中和”的目标，但低碳运行下的经济体转型仍面临严峻挑战。为此，基于碳市场、碳交易与碳政策的现状，利用数据挖掘和人工智能数据分析，对全球CO₂排放现状和“双碳”目标下国际油气公司的能源转型举措进行了调研分析，并基于我国碳排放及油气领域实用“脱碳”技术现状，给出了我国“脱碳”路径的4项建议，包括推广低碳新材料和新技术、推行通用碳市场标准、制定绿色转型企业保护性政策和激励低碳研发等，提出了我国油公司能源转型的5个关键方向，包括加速低碳化油气勘探开发、开展碳足迹全链评价、推进页岩气智能集约开发、加快氢能技术和CCUS技术研发等。这对我国双碳目标的实现和油公司的顺利转型具有一定的指导意义。 

The Study on Decarbonization Pathway and Structural Transformation of Oil Companies in China

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed that the global average temperature rise by the end of the century should be controlled within 2 ℃ above pre-industrial levels. In order to actively respond to climate change, the Chinese government has put forward the goal of “carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”. However, the economic transformation under low-carbon operation still faces severe challenges. In this regard, based on the carbon market, carbon trading and carbon policy, the status of global CO₂ emissions and the energy transformation measures taken by international oil and gas companies for the dual?carbon goal were investigated and analyzed with data mining and artificial intelligence data analysis. Based on the status of carbon emission in China and the practical decarbonization technologies in the oil and gas field, four key recommendations for decarbonization pathways were put forward, including popularizing new low-carbon material and technologies, promoting general carbon market standards, formulating protective policies for green transformation enterprises, and encouraging low-carbon research and development. What's more, five key areas for the energy transformation of oil companies in China were proposed, which are accelerating low-carbon development and exploration of oil and gas, carrying out carbon footprint full-chain evaluation, promoting intelligent and intensive development of shale gas, expediting research and development of hydrogen energy and CCUS technology. The research results can provide a valuable reference for the achievement of the dual carbon goal and the smooth transformation of oil companies.