基于水动力数学模型的建设项目洪水风险分析

为评价建设项目面临的洪水风险，为工程优化设计提供依据，以邹平货运铁路物流站为例，采用 MIKE21 与 MIKE11 耦合方式，建立项目区周边河网模型，分析孝妇河在 100 年一遇设计洪水情况下右堤不同位置发生漫溢或溃堤时，项目区洪水演进过程，得到新建邹平货运铁路物流站各区域淹没水深、流速、淹没历时等特征数据。根据模拟结果，孝妇河在不同位置溃堤时洪水对物流站的影响差别较大，其中，位于物流站西南侧的毛张村南侧溃口溃决时，对项目区影响最大，该工况下物流站最大淹没水深可达 0.83 m，最大流速为 0.65 m/s，淹没历时约为 1.26 d。除毛张村南侧外，其他溃口溃决或漫溢对项目区淹没风险较小。根据模拟结果，本研究有针对性的提出减轻或消除洪水影响的措施，可为类似项目洪水风险分析提供一定的参考。

Flood Risk Analysis of Construction Project based on Hydrodynamic Model

In order to evaluate flood risk of construction project and provide basis for engineering optimization design, taking Zouping freight railway logistics station as an example, this paper establishes river network model around the research area by using the Coupled 1D-2D Hydrodynamic Model, analyzes the flood process when the river overflows or breaks at different positions in case of 100 year design flood, and obtains the characteristics data of the inundation depth, velocity and inundation duration. According to the simulation results, when River Xiaofu dike breaks at different locations, the impact of flood on the logistics station is quite different. When dike breaks at south of Maozhang village, the flood has the greatest impact on the project area. Under this condition, the maximum submerged depth of the logistics station can reach 0.83 m, the maximum flow speed is 0.65 m/s, and the submerged time is about 1.26 days. Except for this area, the risk of other breach or overflow to the project area is small. According to the results, some measures to reduce or eliminate the impact of flood are proposed. This study can provide some reference for flood risk analysis of similar projects.