基于概率模型的弹道导弹防御系统拦截方案优化与评估

针对弹道导弹防御系统，研究概率意义下如何根据高层战略防御指标设计和部署拦截方案。在Bernoulli实验模型基础上，将拦截弹数量和防御指标进行关联，并进一步分析系统广义跟踪能力以及拦截弹单发毁伤概率对所需拦截弹数量的影响。在此基础上采用齐射拦截方式和连续发射方式，讨论防御指标、目标数量、目标威胁比率等因素对拦截弹消耗情况的影响。针对分层防御将各层拦截方案的设计建模为最优化问题，在保证防御指标的情况下，通过优化各层目标发射拦截弹的数量，使得平均每目标消耗的拦截弹数量最少，从而达到整体作战效能最优。

The Optimization and Evaluation of Ballistic Missile Defense System Interception Scheme Based on Probability Model

How to design and deploy the interception schemes to meet the specific high-level defense objective is discussed. A correlation between defense objective and the number of interceptors is established based on Bernoulli trial model, and the effects of system generalized tracking ability and single-shot kill probability on the number of interceptors are analyzed as well. the factors, such as high-level defense objective, target number and single-shot kill probability, that affect consumption of interceptors at the modes of salvo fire and string firing are discussed. At the premise of defense objective, the interceptor allocation in a layered defense is modeled as an optimization problem. The average number of consumed interceptors can be minimized by optimizing the quantity of interceptors against the targets in each defense layer.