Seven-year longitudinal study of the early prediction of reading achievement.

Investigated how well a broad, comprehensive battery of tests administered in kindergarten to 286 Ss (aged 5.0–7.1 yrs) predicted reading achievement in Grades 1–6. The test variables were reduced to 6 predictive factors by factor analysis that, together with the S's sex and the parent's language, had multiple correlations with reading achievement of .58 (Grade 1), .65 (Grade 2), .70 (Grade 3), .66 (Grade 6), and .71 (across all reading achievement tests). Path analysis showed that characteristics measured in kindergarten directly influenced reading in early primary grades and that early reading achievement was the primary determinant of later reading performance. It is concluded that the use of a 2-stage testing procedure, a preliminary screening device followed by the full test battery for selected Ss, substantially reduced testing time and resources, but it had almost no effect on the accuracy of predictions in the present study. (41 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)