基于相关分析的淮河流域暴雨灾害风险评估

以淮河流域暴雨灾害为研究对象,从致灾因子的危险性和承灾体的易损性两方面出发,选择降水量、径流量、河网、高程、坡度、人口、经济等评价指标,通过相关分析法计算各指标权重,加权求和法得到淮河流域暴雨灾害的危险图、易损图及综合风险图,利用洪涝淹没面积数据验证暴雨灾害综合风险评估结果.结果表明:1)淮河流域暴雨灾害危险性较高的地区主要分布在河南南部、安徽北部以及江苏东部;2)淮河流域易损性较高的地区主要分布在河南中北部、安徽中部、山东南部及江苏东北部;3)淮河流域暴雨灾害高风险区集中在河南南部、安徽北部,以及江苏东部;4)洪涝淹没区隶属中高风险等级的面积占总面积的75.24%,与实际情况吻合,风险评估精度较高.

Rainstorm Risk Assessment of Huaihe River Based on Correlation Analysis

The vainstorm disaster of rainstorm disaster Huaihe River basin was investigated. Based on the hazard of the factor leading to disaster and vulnerability of the object suffered dis-aster, the indexes of rainfall, runoff, river density, elevation, slope, population and economic indicators were chosen. Then the index weight of each factor above is calculated by using Cor-relation Analysis. The rainstorm disaster hazard maps, vulnerability maps and comprehensive risk maps were generated by getting weighted sum of all the factors. The rainstorm disaster risk assessment results were verified by using data of area inundated in flood. The results show that: 1) the higher hazard areas of rainstorm in Huaihe River catchment are mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan, the northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu province; 2) higher vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in north-central of Henan , central of An-hui, south of Shandong and the northeast of Jiangsu province; 3) high risk areas are mainly distributed in south of Henan, north of Anhui and east of Jiangsu province; 4) in the flood in-undated areas the high risk area occupies 75.24% of the total area, which is accorded with the actual situation, so the result is very accurate.