| 城市地区火灾事故发生的灰色预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗遴. 城市地区火灾事故发生的灰色预测方法[J]. 华中科技大学学报(城市科学版), 1997, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗遴 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南建筑设计院 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色理论的预测基本原理及数学建模方法，建立ＧＭ（１，１）火灾事故率－时间预测模型．结合微机技术，针对香港１９７７～１９８１年火灾事例数据，研究了该地区火灾事故的发生规律，并对其发展趋势进行了预测，为制定正确地防止火灾发生的决策提供了重要的参考依据．此外，还对预测过程中值得注意的问题进行了讨论．
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统；预测模型；火灾预测 |
Grey Prediction Method on Fire Accident in City Area |
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| Luo Lin. Grey Prediction Method on Fire Accident in City Area[J]. Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1997, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Luo Lin |
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| Affiliation: | China Central Southern Construction Design Institute |
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| Abstract: | Based on the prediction principal of Grey System Theory and the math modeling method, a GM(1,1) model is introduced for the prediction between fire accident value and time. The fire accident occuring regularity is discussed and the development tendency is predicated combined with the fire data in Hong Kong from 1977 to 1980 which will be an important reference for the decision of fire accident provention. |
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| Keywords: | Grey System prediction model fire accident |
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