| 温州市年降水量的权马尔可夫链预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈才明,孙新新,白植帆. 温州市年降水量的权马尔可夫链预测模型[J]. 浙江水利科技, 2009, 0(2): 8-10 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈才明 孙新新 白植帆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 温州市水文站,浙江,温州,325000
2. 温州市水利局,浙江,温州,325000 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于降水过程不确定性的特点，利用资料系列的均方差方法把降水序列分为不同的状态。在此基础上，采用统计方法，建立转移概率矩阵，以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重，并用加权的马尔可夫模型和模糊集理论中的级别特征值预测降水状态和降水量。根据温州市区1955-2004年连续50a的降水资料，用马尔可夫预测模型预测温州市2005-2007的降水状态及年降水量，预测误差分别为1．44％、0．3％、6．3％，满足预报精度，说明该模型应用于温州市区是成功的。
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| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫链 模糊集理论 转移概率矩阵 自相关系数 年降水量预报 |
An Annual precipitation Forecasting Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Wenzhou |
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| CHEN Cai-Ming,SUN Xin-xin,BAI Zhi-fan. An Annual precipitation Forecasting Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Wenzhou[J]. Zhejiang Hydrotechnics, 2009, 0(2): 8-10 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Cai-Ming SUN Xin-xin BAI Zhi-fan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Wenzhou Hydrologic Station;Wenzhou 325000;China;2.Wenzhou Water Convervancy Bureau;China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the uncertainty characteristics,rainfall series could be divided into different states via mean square deviation method of data series.Transition probability matrix is obtained by using statistical method on that basis.Standardized autocorrelation coefficients based on the special characteristics of correlation among the historical stochastic variables are regarded as weights.The weighted Markov chain model and the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets are used to predict the probability state ... |
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| Keywords: | Markov chain fuzzy sets transition probability matrix self-correlative annual precipitation prediction |
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