城市人口对房地产投资的影响研究

本文根据我国31个大中城市2000年末的统计数据,通过多元线性回归模型,从诸多反映城市集聚效应的因素中,提取了直接影响房地产投资的人口因素,证明了暂住人口对房地产投资的重要影响。论文还利用路径分析法,解释了反映城市集聚效应的各因素是以怎样的方式和强度影响房地产投资的。在这些因素中,暂住人口比例、市区人口数量和消费密度对房地产投资的直接影响最大。在此基础上,本文实证分析了人口对房地产投资的显著影响,提出了评价我国城市房地产投资与城市集聚效应关系的宏观分析方法。

THE IMPACT OF URBAN POPULATION ON REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT

Many macro economic indicators including urbanization, population, consumption and industry structure are used to evaluate the aggregating effects of cities as well as the real estate investment. How to evaluate the nexus between real estate investment and the major economic indicators concerning urban aggregating degree? By using the statistical data of 31cilies of 2000 in China, this paper is trying to identify the importance of each major indicator effecting real estate investment by quantitative analysis. The paper also works out a concise model to forecast the reasonable investment by considering the temporary residents . Meanwhile, path analysis is introduced to figure out how each major economic indicator of aggregation in cities directly or indirectly influence the real estate investment by a graph of relation. The findings of the research can not only help us understand the investment performance in current real estate market of China, but also can help government officials in regulating real estate market as well as the urban growth.