我国城市用地规模的影响因素分析

城市发展规模一直是我国城市总体规划编制和审批关注的焦点。在我国经济转型阶段,通过预测人口规模来确定用地规模的方法存在着较大的不确定性,不能完全适应现在的城市管理需要。要对城市土地的需求进行预测,就要对影响城市建设用地增长的因素进行分析。本文在理论分析的基础上,采用我国1990年、2000年199个城市建成区数据,对建成区的规模的影响因素进行定量分析,认为城市的经济发展水平是城市用地规模的主要影响因素,而且对不同类型的城市的影响程度有所不同,并进一步提出实施城市用地规模动态管理的建议。

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENTIAL ELEMENTS OF URBAN LAND SCALE IN CHINA

The scale of city is the focus of concern in the master plan formulation and approval process. In the economic transitional period, there is a big uncertainty to predict the urban land scale by predicting the population scale, which now can not meet the requirements of the urban administration. To predict the demand for the urban land, it is important to analyze the elements influencing the growth of urban construction land. This paper, on the basis of theoretical analysis, makes a quantitive research on the influential elements of the scale of developed areas by studying the data of developed areas of 199 cities in 1990 and 2000, finding that the economic development is the main factor of urban land scale and its influence on cities is different. Then it gives some suggestions on the dynamic administration of urban land scale.