基于IHACRES和GLUE的降雨径流过程模拟

根据降雨径流过程的特征,修正了IHACRES水文模型,并将其与GLUE方法结合,提出了资料缺乏区域降雨径流的分析方法,该方法包括模型参数范围的确定、参数组的筛选与权重的计算、验证与不确定性评价、预测等。利用该方法对深圳石岩河流域两场降雨径流过程的分析表明:模型校准和验证的Nash效率系数R2分别为0.917和0.59,验证时实测径流量基本位于90%置信度预测区间内。该方法对研究流域降雨径流过程的模拟效果较好,径流预测及其不确定性分析可靠,其结果可为资料缺乏区域初期雨水截留规模的设计和方案优化提供依据。

Simulation of Rainfall Runoff Based on Modified IHACRES Model and GLUE Method

According to the characteristics of rainfall runoff process, the IHACRES model was modified and combined with the GLUE method to develop a simulation method for analyzing rainfall runoff in areas short of observed data. The simulation method includes four steps : determining the range of mod-el parameters, screening parameter sets and calculating their corresponding likelihood weights, validating and evaluating model uncertainties, and using the model to predict rainfall runoff. The simulation method was applied to analyze the rainfall runoff of two storm events in Shiyan River catchment of Shenzhen City. The results show that the Nash efficiency coefficients for the model calibration and validation are 0.917 and 0.59 respectively, and most observed runoff values in the model validation are located in the 90% confidence interval. With high simulation efficiency of rainfall runoff and reliable simulation and uncer-tainty analysis, the simulation method can provide a reference for the design and optimization of storm wa-ter interception projects in areas short of observed data.