| 负荷预测的灰色系统方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文莉 魏晓云. 负荷预测的灰色系统方法[J]. 东北电力学院学报, 1997, 17(2): 37-43 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文莉 魏晓云 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北电力学院研究生部 |
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| 摘 要： | 完善灰色预测模型ＧＭ（１，１）的建模机理，使其具有广泛的应用性，否定了灰色预测的传统检验方法后验差检验方法，同时利用数理统计常用的方法对模型进行了比较深入的研究，实例表明改进的ＧＭ（１，１）模型具有较高的拟合精度和预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测 灰色系统 电力负荷 预测 |
An Improved Method Based on Grey Model in Load Forecasting of Power System |
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| Wang Wenli Wei Xiaoyun. An Improved Method Based on Grey Model in Load Forecasting of Power System[J]. Journal of Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering, 1997, 17(2): 37-43 |
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| Authors: | Wang Wenli Wei Xiaoyun |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents an improved method which is based on the grey model used to forecast a power system.With this method,the applicable range of the GM(1,1) modle is widened.The paper shows that the traditional method of precision test of GM(1,1) is unsuitable and presents a statistical method of precision test.By analyzing an actual example we can see that this method is very effective.Discussinos about the error control are also mode. |
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| Keywords: | grey forecasting GM(1 1) model new information and equal dimensional model model precision modified model test method |
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