| 中国油菜籽贸易增长及其影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 司伟,吕新业.中国油菜籽贸易增长及其影响因素[J].中国食物与营养,2011,17(9):42-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 司伟 吕新业 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京,100083
2. 中国农业科学院农业经济研究所,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部农业国际交流与合作项目“我国油菜籽外贸进入和影响的调查研究(2010)” |
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| 摘 要： | 以油菜籽贸易政策的演变为背景,结合国际机构对油菜籽贸易的预测,研究了油菜籽贸易的决定因素,回答了2005年以来中国油菜籽进口的持续增长,特别是2009年进口激增,是偶然现象还是历史必然。结果表明,中国油料贸易政策决定了油菜籽及其制品的贸易规模和贸易结构,除此之外,中国市场和国际市场油菜籽价差、农户从事油菜生产机会成本的增加、中国农业生产的资源禀赋等3个因素决定了油菜籽及其制品的长期贸易发展趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 油菜籽 贸易增长 影响因素 |
China＇s Rapeseed Trade Growth and Determinants |
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| SI Wei,LV Xin-ye.China＇s Rapeseed Trade Growth and Determinants[J].Food and Nutrition in China,2011,17(9):42-46. |
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| Authors: | SI Wei LV Xin-ye |
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| Affiliation: | SI Wei1,LV Xin-ye2 (1College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China,2Institute of Agricultural Economics Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | Having the evolution of China＇s rapeseed trade policies and the prediction of rapeseed trade growth over the next 10 years by the international agencies as background,the paper studied China＇s rapeseed trade determinants in the future,and explained the economic phenomena of China＇s rapeseed import continuous growth,especially the import surge in 2009.The results showed that China＇s trade policies on oilseed crops settled the trade quantity and trade structure of rapeseed and its products.In addition,the price differentials between domestic and international market,the increasing opportunity cost of engaging in rape production and China＇s resources endowments in agricultural sector all determined the long-term trade trend of China＇s rapeseed and its products. |
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| Keywords: | China＇s rapeseed trade growth trade determinants |
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