基于组合权重TOPSIS模型的黄河流域九省区水资源承载力评价

针对黄河流域九省区构建了涵盖水资源、生态环境、经济社会3个准则层的评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权的TOPSIS模型对九省区2002年、2007年、2012年、2017年的水资源承载力进行了综合评价,并对2017年评价结果进行了障碍因子诊断。结果表明:时间维度上,九省区水资源承载力呈现出增大趋势,河南、山东、内蒙古水资源承载力提升趋势最为明显,水资源承载力的提升与生态环境、经济社会两准则层相关指标的改善密切相关;空间维度上,九省区水资源承载力均未达到Ⅰ级(可承载)水平,空间差异性明显;产水模数、人均水资源量、供水模数、生态用水率、植被覆盖率、万元工业增加值用水量、万元GDP用水量为7大主要障碍因子,部分障碍因子在不同省区存在明显差异。

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of nine provinces in Yellow River Basin based on combined weight TOPSIS model

In view of the nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin, an evaluation index system covering three criteria layers such as water resources, ecological environment and economic and society is constructed. The water resources carrying capacity of nine provinces in 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017 was evaluated by the TOPSIS model combined with analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight, and the evaluation results of the year of 2017 were diagnosed with obstacle factors. The results show that in the time dimension, the water resources carrying capacity of nine provinces shows an increasing trend, especially in Henan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia, and the improvement of water resources carrying capacity is closely related to the improvement of two criteria level related indicators such as eco-environment, economic society. In the spatial dimension, the water resources carrying capacity of the nine provinces does not reach the level of grade I(carriable level), and the spatial difference is obvious. Water production module, water resources per capita, water supply modulus, ecological water use rate, vegetation coverage rate, water consumption per 10 000 RMB of industrial added value and water consumption per 10 000 RMB of GDP are seven major obstacles, and there are significant differences of some obstacle factors in different provinces.