应急决策中基于时态知识的不确定性推理研究

针对应急决策中的不确定性，在传统区间代数方法的基础上，采用对区间时间断点模糊化处理并设定其取值范围的方法实现了应急领域不确定时态知识的表达，在此基础上，研究时态推理中的证据合成，通过时间区间集合，时态关系集合以及概率指派函数合成后的更新，给出了解决方案，结合应用算例进行分析。验证了该方法的有效性。

Uncertainty reasoning based on temporal knowledge in emergency decision

Aiming at the uncertainty in emergency decision, the paper established the representation of uncertain time interval with the fuzzy method to interval time breakpoint and set its value range in emergency field based on traditional method of interval algebra.On this basis, it studied the evidence combination in temporal reasoning, and provided solutions with combining the analysis of application example and verifying the effectiveness of the method by synthetic update of the time interval congregation, the temporal relations congregation and the probability assignment function.