基于遗传算法和LSSVM的网络安全事件发生频率预测

Network Security Incidents Frequency Prediction Based on Improved Genetic Algorithm and LSSVM

Since the frequency of network security incidents is nonlinear, traditional prediction methods such as ARMA, Gray systems are difficult to deal with the problem. When the size of sample is small, methods based on artificial neural network may not reach a high degree of preciseness. Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) is a kind of machine learning methods based on the statistics learning theory, it can be applied to solve small sample and non-linear problems very well. This paper applied LSSVM to predict the occur frequency of network security incidents. To improve the accuracy, it used an improved genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of LSSVM. Verified by real data sets, the improved genetic algorithm (IGA) converges faster than the simple genetic algorithm (SGA), and has a higher efficiency in the optimization procedure. Specially, the optimized LSSVM model worked very well on the prediction of frequency of network security incidents.