区域海面蒸发波导预报与监测试验对比分析

基于中尺度数值天气预报模式（The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model，MM5）建立了大气波导预报平台，使用GFS数据对包含我国黄海、东海以及南海海域的区域蒸发波导分布进行预报.将2015年12月份海上航行过程中监测的不同时刻、不同海域处的蒸发波导高度同预报结果进行对比分析，结果表明二者具有较好的一致变化趋势.考虑到实时测量时间分辨率高以及数值预报预报区域广的特点，在实际舰船雷达效应评估中可充分利用两种数据，实现海上微波传播效应的预测和预报.

Comparison between predicted and experimental result of regional evaporation duct over sea

A platform for predicting the atmospheric duct is established based on the MM5 mesoscale model.We make use of the global forecasting system(GFS) data to predict the area sea surface evaporation duct including the Yellow sea area and the East China Sea and the South China Sea.An experiment was conducted on December 2015, and in the navigation we recorded the height of evaporation duct in different time and at different locations.A comparison between the measured data and predicted data is demonstrated that both of them have the same changing trend.This illustration confirmed the validation of the numerical predicted results of evaporation duct.Considering the advantage of high time resolution for measured method and large area for prediction method, we should use both of them in evaluating the performance of radar on the warship then we can derive the microwave propagation predicted effects over the sea.