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| 计算机病毒发展态势预测算法的评估 | |
| 引用本文： | 薛东军,任望,张鹏宇,马杰.计算机病毒发展态势预测算法的评估[J].信息安全与通信保密,2011,9(7):63-65. |
| 作者姓名： | 薛东军 任望 张鹏宇 马杰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国人民解放军61046部队,北京,100094 2. 中国信息安全测评中心,北京,100085 3. 中国国家税务总局,北京,100038 4. 北京艾普尤信息技术有限公司,北京,100190 |
| 摘 要： | 对计算机病毒发展态势预测,能够提前对网络安全状况进行判断,有利于做好事前防范,并建立预警机制。目前对计算机病毒发展态势的预测还处于探索阶段,传统算法在此方面的预测效果也尚不明确。这里比较了多种预测算法,如移动平均、态势预测、季节变动预测及线性回归等方法在实际计算机病毒发展分析上的预测准确率。通过对不同时间跨度,不同类型计算机病毒数据进行深入分析发现,线性回归和季节变动算法能够较好地适应具有时间周期性的计算机病毒日志数据。 |
| 关 键 词： | 计算机病毒 发展态势 预测 效果评估 |
Evaluation on Prediction Algorithms based on Computer Virus Trend |
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| XUE Dong-jun,REN Wang,ZHANG Peng-yu,MA Jie.Evaluation on Prediction Algorithms based on Computer Virus Trend[J].China Information Security,2011,9(7):63-65. | |
| Authors: | XUE Dong-jun REN Wang ZHANG Peng-yu MA Jie |
| Affiliation: | XUE Dong-jun1,REN Wang2,ZHANG Peng-yu3,MA Jie4 (1PLA Unit A61046,Beijing 100094,China,2China Information Technology Security Evaluation Center,Beijing 100085,3State Administration of Taxation,Beijing 100038,4Beijing Aipuyou Information Technology Co.,Beijing 100190,China) |
| Abstract: | Forecast on the development trend of computer virus can help the judgment of network security situation for proper precautionary preparations. Currently forecast on the development trend of computer virus is still in exploratory stage,the forecast results of traditional method in this regard are still not clear. Various prediction algorithms based on actual computer virus are compared,including moving average,trend forecasting,seasonal changes forecasting,and linear regression and so on. The analysis on different time spans,different types of malicious code data indicates that the linear regression and seasonal change forecasting algorithm have better performance in the periodic computer virus log data. |
| Keywords: | computer virus development trend prediction results evaluation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |