基于灰色预测和Chan-Vese模型的台风中心定位

台风是最严重的自然灾害之一,是一个具有巨大破坏力的天气系统。为了减少台风所带来的损失,实时精确地确定台风中心位置是一项十分重要的工作,这也为台风的跟踪与定强等分析提供了重要信息。对国内外台风中心定位现状进行了研究,基于红外序列图像,分别对有眼台风和无眼台风进行定位,提出了基于灰色预测和Chan-Vese模型的台风定位方案。灰色预测用于预测下一时刻台风的初始位置;通过Chan-Vese模型得到台风中心附近的眼墙,然后进行圆拟合即可得到台风中心。除此之外,一些模式识别和图像处理的方法在有眼台风定位中得到了较好的应用。利用气象卫星MTSAT红外1通道图像对2007年台风"圣帕"序列图像进行测试,并将结果分别与中央气象台及日本气象厅的最优路径进行对比,经、纬度误差在0.18°以内。

Typhoon center locating based on gray model and Chan-Vese model

Typhoon is one of the most serious disasters in the nature,which is also a weather system with destructive power.In order to alleviate the disaster,determining the position of the typhoons in time as accurately as possible is very important in tracking the typhoons.In this paper,we present a scheme of the center location of Eye typhoons and Non-eye typhoons,which is based on Gary Model and Chan-Vese Model.Gary Model is used to forecast the initial position of next time.The cloud wall around the center can be got through Chan-Vese Model and circle fitting.Besides,some pattern reorganization and image processing technologies are well applied in determining the centers of Eye typhoons.The typhoon named SEPAT(2007)with MTSAT infrared images was used to test the scheme.Compared with the best track data supported by China Meteorology Administration and Japan Meteorology Administration,the mean errors on latitude and longitude are within 0.18°.