平滑灰色法风电功率的预测研究

风能是一种清洁的可再生能源,由于风力发电的波动性、间歇性,能使大容量风力发电并网对电力系统可靠、经济运行产生消极影响。为保证电力系统运行的稳定性,合理制定调度计划,根据已有的4台风电机组的实测功率,提出对原始数据进行平滑化处理和基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的预测方法。即以风电机组第23 d前若干天的功率数据为原始数据,对4台风电机组分别进行未来24 h(第23 d)的功率进行预测,并按国家标准公式计算预测准确率。根据仿真结果确定最佳预测用原始数据,预测准确率达到国家标准,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。

Prediction Research of Wind Power Generation by Smoothing-Grey Model

Wind energy is a kind of clean and renewable energy.Wind power generation is volatility and intermittent,so large capacity of wind power generation access to the grid cause serious effect on reliable and economic operation of power system.In order to ensure the stable and reasonable schedule of power system,the smooting process for original data and the prediction method based on grey prediction model GM(1,1) are proposed according to measured power of four wind turbine units.Takes the power data of several days before the 23rd day as original data,predicts the next 24 h power(the 23rd day) of each four wind turbine and predicts the accuracy according to national standard formula.According to the simulation results,the best prediction original data is identified,the accuracy rate meets national standard,which proves the validity and feasibility of the method.