铜精炼过程能耗模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型及其应用

基于已有的铜精炼过程的能耗数据,引入了各预测方法的预测相对误差、预测对象的变化趋势、灰色基本权重和自适应调节系数等概念,建立了铜精炼过程的能耗模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型。结果表明,此模糊自适应变权重组合预测模型的精度较高,并且平均误差和预测平方根误差均较小。该组合预测模型为铜精炼过程的能源需求决策提供了有力支持。

APPLICATION OF COMBINED FORECASTING MODEL OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION TO COPPER REFINING PROCESS BASED ON THE METHOD OF FUZZY ADAPTIVE VARIABLE WEIGHT

On the basis of the current datum of energy consumption in copper refining process,a combined model through using the method of fuzzy variable weight was established for forecasting energy consumption in copper refining process. The conceptions, such as the relative error, the tendency of the forecasted object, gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient were introduced into the model establishment. The results revealed that the combined forecasting model has relative high precision, small average error and forecasting square root error,and therefore,offering a vigorous support for energy requirement decision in cooper refining process.