基于多变量的太灰含水层突水风险性分类判别研究

太灰含水层为华北型煤田的下组煤开采直接充水含水层，下组煤层开采时，在具有强水源补给或接近导水通道的部位，常会发生较大的灾害性突水事故。针对近年太灰含水层突涌水事故，从矿井水文地质条件、突水事故经过、原因、特点等方面进行统计分析，确定突水系数、含水层富水性、补给条件、断裂构造是否导通煤层及层位关系为太灰含水层突水风险分类判别的主要变量。根据确定的突水风险分类判别变量，将太灰含水层突水风险性划分为安全型(顶板型或底板型)、顶板突水危险型(有补给或无补给)、底板太灰单一突水危险型(有补给或无补给)、底板太灰与奥灰含水层关联突水危险型、陷落柱或断层贯通突水危险型等类型，并分别制订了防治方法。该研究可为受太灰含水层威胁的华北煤田下组煤层开采防治水工作提供参考。

Study on classification and discrimination of water inrush risk in Taiyuan limestone aquifer based on multivariate analysis

Taiyuan limestone aquifer is the aquifer directly filled with water in the lower coal mining group of the North China type coalfield.When the lower group coal seam is mined, large disastrous water inrush accidents often occur at the position with strong water supply or close to the water diversion channel. Based on the statistical analysis of water inrush accidents in Taiyuan limestone aquifer in recent years from the aspects of mine hydrogeological conditions, water inrush accident process, causes and characteristics, etc., to determine the water inrush coefficient, aquifer water richness, replenishment conditions, whether the fault structure leads to the coal seam and the stratum relationship is the main variable for the classification and discrimination of water inrush risk in the Taiyuan limestone aquifer. According to the determined water inrush risk classification and discriminant variables, the water inrush risk of Taiyuan limestone(Taihui) aquifer is divided into safety type(roof or floor type), roof water inrush hazard type(with or without replenishment), floor Taihui with single water inrush dangerous type(with or without replenishment), water inrush hazard type associated with Taihui floor and Ordovician limestone aquifer, water inrush hazard type through collapse column or fault, etc., and prevention methods have been formulated respectively, the prevention and control methods are formulated separately. This study can provide a reference for water prevention and control work of coal seam mining in the lower group of North China coal field threatened by the Taiyuan limestone aquifer.