基于概率法的电力系统安全分析

为应对电力系统安全分析中的停机问题，基于概率法的方式，将常用的确定停机计算与加入了概率法的概率停机进行比较，研究了二者的区别与其在长期投资方向的不同。在进行电力系统停机分析时，通常会分别从确定停机与概率停机的角度出发，对其应急状态下的潮流进行计算。但前者的方法可能导致极低概率的停机事件被忽略，进而影响长期的资金投资。通过加入概率法的计算，使得对单个停机事件的判定由其具体的频率来确定，增加了系统运行的稳定性。

Analysis on power system security based on probability method

In order to deal with the shutdown problem in power system security analysis，based on the method of probability method，the commonly used deterministic shutdown calculation is compared with the probabilistic shutdown with probability method，and the difference between them and their long-term investment direction are studied.In the analysis of power system shutdown，the power flow under emergency state is usually calculated from the perspective of deterministic shutdown and probabilistic shutdown.However，the former method may lead to the neglect of extremely low probability downtime events，which will affect the long-term capital investment.By adding the calculation of probability method，the determination of a single shutdown event was determined by its specific frequency，which increases the stability of system operation.