中美两国石油供应风险对比研究及启示

中美两国位列全球前两大石油消费国,近年来美国得益于页岩气革命,石油的自给率不断增加,而中国的石油自给率不断下降,对外依存度不断攀升,因此对比分析中美两国的石油供应风险,有助于中国识别石油供应风险点。基于亚太能源研究中心提出的能源安全"4A模型",构建了石油的供应风险评价模型。评价结果显示,2000年以来,中国的石油供应风险总体高于美国。中国的石油供应风险在2000~2002年短暂下降后开始上升,一直保持在较高水平。美国的石油供应风险在2008年之后开始大幅下降。中国的石油供应风险主要集中在可利用性和可获得性方面,而美国的石油供应风险则集中在可利用性和可接受性方面。

Comparative analysis and inspiration of the oil supply risk between China and the United States

China and the U.S. are the two largest consumer countries in the world. It benefited from the shale gas revolution in the U.S. in recent years, the oil self-sufficiency increases continuously. While the oil self-sufficiency rate of China has continuously dropped, the crude oil external dependence was increasing. Thus this paper makes a comparative analysis of the oil supply risk between the U.S. and China, aiming to identification of the oil supply risk point of China. Based on the energy security "4A" model proposed by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center, we built up the risk evaluation model in the oil supply. The results show that China"s oil supply risk is generally higher than the US since 2000. China"s oil supply risk began to rise in a short period of 2000 to 2002, has been maintained at a high level. The oil supply risk of the U.S. began to decline significantly after 2008. China"s oil supply risk is mainly concentrated in the availability and accessibility, while the oil supply risk of the U.S. is concentrated in availability and acceptability.