模糊概率量化事故树的采空区坍塌事故风险评价

为了降低采空区风险评价的不确定性,建立采空区坍塌事故树模型,利用模糊概率量化法将专家模糊语义打分转化为基本事件定量化概率,对灵宝市某金矿2号采空区的坍塌风险进行了评价。评价结果表明：该金矿为2号采空区发生坍塌事故的概率是0.0961,具有较大的坍塌风险,导致坍塌风险的主要原因是矿柱尺寸劣于设计值、矿柱性质发生变化和未按设计开采,并通过重要度分析提出了降低采空区坍塌风险的治理措施,为矿山企业安全生产提供了有益参考。

Risk Assessment of Gob Collapse by Means of Fuzzy Quantitative Probability Fault Tree Analysis

In order to reduce the uncertainty of risk assessment in gob, fuzzy fault tree method is adopted to in this paper. Firstly, the gob collapse fault tree model is established, and the fuzzy probability quantification method is adopted to converted the fuzzy scoring of experts into quantitative probability of basic events. Then, this method is introduced to assess the collapse risk of 2# gob of a certain gold mine in Lingbao, Henan. The result shows the 2# gob has a high risk to collapse, the probability reaches 0.0961. The main reasons are the size of pillars are inferior to design, the properties of pillars have changed and the mining is not conducted as design. According to importance analysis the improved measures are proposed, which provides useful reference to safety production.