中国铝土矿的供应安全评价

中国作为氧化铝、原铝生产消费大国,铝土矿资源贫乏、长期供应不足,供应安全形势严峻。因此针对我国铝土矿供应安全状况评价以及未来供应趋势的判断非常必要。本文利用2000～2018年的数据从资源禀赋安全、国内供需安全、进口市场安全三个方面出发,建立中国铝土矿供应安全评价指标体系,利用熵权-TOPSIS法对2000～2018年铝土矿的安全趋势进行评价,并基于评价结果运用分数阶算子灰色模型对未来的安全趋势进行预测。结果表明:2000～2002年我国铝土矿供应较安全,2003～2005年我国铝土矿供应基本安全,2006～2018年我国铝土矿供应较危险,2019～2023年我国铝土矿供应仍然较危险。

Supply safety evaluation of bauxite mine in China

As a major consumer of alumina and primary aluminum, China has a shortage of bauxite resources and insufficient long-term supply. The supply security situation is grim. Therefore, it is necessary to judge the safety status of bauxite supply in China and the judgment of future supply trends. Based on the data from 2000 to 2018, this paper constructs China"s bauxite supply safety evaluation index system from three aspects: resource endowment safety, domestic supply and demand security, and import market security. The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the safety trend of bauxite. The fractional order grey model is used to predict future security trends. The results show that the supply of bauxite is relatively safe in China from 2000 to 2002. The supply of bauxite in China is basically safe from 2003 to 2005. The supply of bauxite in China is relatively dangerous in 2006-2018. The supply of bauxite in China is still relatively dangerous in 2019-2023.