基于供需形势分析的京津冀砂石开发基地划定

京津冀协同发展是十九大报告提出的国家重大发展战略,协同发展中的新型城镇化建设和交通基础设施建设加大砂石需求,但是生态环保优先限制了砂石开发区域,产业转型升级要求进一步缩减砂石产能,砂石供需缺口较大。笔者采用年均增长率法、系数预测法、专家预测法估算了京津冀十三五期间砂石矿产消耗量为33.81亿吨,年均消耗量为6.96亿吨。但是,京津冀地区砂石供给主要依靠砂石矿山开采、固废再利用、工程建设项目采出、无证开采四种方式,年均供给量1.696亿吨。供给保证度在24.36%左右,供需缺口高达5亿吨左右,难以保证协同发展战略的顺利实施。基于此,笔者依托砂石资源开发利用现状和生态环境条件,采用核密度估计法划定了十大开发基地,以期促进规模化、集约化的绿色生产,提高砂石供给能力,缩减供需缺口。

Beijing Tianjin-Hebei Sandstone Development Base DelimitationBased on supply and demand situation analysis

The concerted development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is a major national development strategy proposed in the 19th National Congress. We will increase the demand for sand and gravel for new types of urbanization and transportation infrastructure under coordinated development. However, eco-environmental protection has limited the development of sand and stone, and industrial transformation and upgrading require further reduction of sand and stone production capacity. average annual growth rate method, coefficient forecasting method and expert forecasting method were used to estimate that the consumption of sand and stone during the 13th five-year period of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei period was 3.381 billion tons, and the average annual consumption was 696 million tons.