天然气消费对中国经济增长的非线性影响 ——基于PSTR模型的分析

基于我国2006～2016年30个省域的面板数据,采用面板平滑转换回归模型,实证检验天然气消费对中国经济增长的影响及其区域差异。结果表明,天然气消费对中国经济增长呈显著非线性影响且具有单一门槛特征,其影响系数围绕位置参数在低高机制之间连续平滑转换,在转换过程中以2.600 2为阈值对经济增长产生正负不同的影响。同时,各样本省份间具有明显的区域异质性,2006年高机制省份占比偏低,而2016年除少数西南省份,全国大多省份均已跨越阈值,天然气消费对经济增长产生显著的正向溢出。

The Nonlinear Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on China

This paper,based on the panel data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2006 to 2016 and the PSTR model, analyzes the effect of natural gas consumption on China"s economic growth and its regional differences. The results show that natural gas consumption has a significant nonlinear effect on China"s economic growth and has a single threshold feature. Its influence coefficient is continuously and smoothly converted between the low and high mechanisms around the position parameters, during which the threshold value of 2.6002 has positive and negative effects on economic growth. Meanwhile, there is significant regional heterogeneity among the sample provinces. In 2006, the proportion of high-mechanism provinces was relatively low, while in 2016, except a few southwest provinces, most provinces in China have crossed the threshold, natural gas consumption has a significant positive spillover to economic growth.