天然铀供需和成本的趋势研究

随着我国核电的发展,天然铀价格逐渐成为业界关注的焦点。我国企业在实施海外资源投资、贸易、海外矿山运营等业务时,国际铀市场变化趋势是关键的考量因素之一。准确把握未来市场价格,可以在控制和降低成本方面获得收益。本文旨在从铀产品供需和成本角度解释和预测未来铀价变化趋势。由于全球铀矿潜在供应较充足,加之存在大量的二次供应,两因素决定了未来10年市场将处于供大于需的态势,铀价大幅上涨的概率降低,国际铀价总体将呈缓慢上升态势。

Study on international uranium price trend based on relation between uranium supply and demand and uranium cost

With the development of China''s nuclear power, uranium prices gradually become the focus of the industry.The international uranium market trends is one of the key considerations when China''s enterprises are in the implementation of overseas investment in resources, trade, and operate overseas uranium deposits. Enterprises can control and reduce costs by accurately grasping the future market price. The purpose of this paper is to explain and forecast the future uranium price from the perspective of uranium supply, demand and cost. The uranium price in the next ten years will be increased slowly due to the potential primary and secondary supply, both of which will reduce the probability of uranium price rising in the recent future. The price in 2015,2020,2025 will be $ 45, $ 52, and $ 62 per pound respectively. After 2025, a higher-cost mine would be required to meet the demand for nuclear power beyond 2025.