| 基于spss时间序列模型的煤矿百万吨死亡率的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙玉亮,梁明,王胜康.基于spss时间序列模型的煤矿百万吨死亡率的预测[J].煤炭技术,2011,30(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙玉亮 梁明 王胜康 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学矿业工程学院,江苏徐州,221116 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用了spss的时间序列分析模块,建立了煤矿百万吨死亡率的时间序列模型,对我国近几年煤矿百万吨死亡率进行了预测,预测精度基本可靠。结论表明:该模型是正确的,预测结果较为准确,有一定的使用价值,可为煤矿的安全生产及企业的管理提供准确的理论依据。
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| 关 键 词： | spss 时间序列模型 百万吨死亡率 ARIMA(p d q)模型 |
Based on Time Series Model of SPSS Coal Million Tons Mortality Rates Forecasts |
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| SUN Yu-liang,LIANG Ming,WANG Sheng-kang.Based on Time Series Model of SPSS Coal Million Tons Mortality Rates Forecasts[J].Coal Technology,2011,30(8). |
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| Authors: | SUN Yu-liang LIANG Ming WANG Sheng-kang |
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| Affiliation: | SUN Yu-liang,LIANG Ming,WANG Sheng-kang(College of Mining Engineering,China University of Mining & Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China) |
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| Abstract: | Using the time series analysis module of SPSS,established coal million tons mortality rates of time series model,to our country in recent years coal million tons mortality rates are forecasted,the forecasting accuracy basic reliable.Conclusion shows that this model is correct and prediction result is more accurate,has certain value,can use for coal mine safety production and enterprise management to provide accurate theoretical basis. |
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| Keywords: | spss timeseriesmodel milliontonsmortalityrates ARIMA(p d q) model |
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