关于贵州煤矿百万吨死亡率灰色预测的探讨

应用灰色系统理论,建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对近几年来贵州煤矿百万吨死亡率进行统计预测,通过灰色模型预测结果与多项式回归模型预测结果的对比,说明该灰色模型基本正确可靠,预测精度较高。因此,利用此灰色模型可对贵州煤矿的安全状况进行科学的分析及预测,及时采取必要的防范措施,对安全管理能起到一定的辅助作用。

Discussion on Death Rate Per Million Ton of Coal Mines Grey Forecast in Guizhou Province

This paper establishes grey GM(1,1) forecast model with the grey theory,and forecastes the recent years of death rate per million ton of coal mines in Guizhou province.Compared the result of grey forecast model with the polynomial regression forecast model,it is shown that the grey model is basic correct and has a higher precision.Therefore,using the grey model for scientific analysis and forecast of the safety conditions of coal mines in Guizhou,and taking some necessary measures promptly.It can play an auxiliary function role in safety management.