基于DPSIR模型的生态安全动态评价研究——以河北永清县为例

土地生态安全动态评价的目的在于协调土地利用和生态环境建设，协调经济发展与资源环境压力。本文以河北省永清县为例，采用DPSIR模型，建立5个子体系的25个指标的生态安全评价指标体系；通过熵权法和层次分析法的组合权重确定各评价指标的权重，并计算各评价单元的综合评价值，建立生态安全度模型；分析了永清县1996-2008年生态安全状态，预测2010、2015和2020年的生态安全度, 划分永清县5个生态安全区，为区域生态安全预警、土地利用规划和经济环境生态协调发展提供科学依据。

A CASE STUDY ON YONGQING COUNTY:DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF ECOLOGICAL SAFETY BASED ON DPSIR MODEL

Land dynamic assessment of ecological safety aims to coordinate land use and ecological environment construction, and to coordinate economic development and resource and environmental pressures. This paper, based on case study on Yongqing county, Hebei province, applies DPSIR model to establish 5 sub-systems and 25 indexes to assess the ecological safety, determines weights of each index by using entropy-weight method and APH, calculates the gross values of each unit and sets up an ecological safety degree model. This paper also analyzes the ecological safety status during 1996 to 2008, forecasts the ecological safety degree for year of 2010, 2015 and 2020, and divides Yongqing county into five safe ecological zones, which provides a reference for regional ecological safety warning, land use planning and a concerted development among economy, environment and ecology.