双向FDI对我国碳排放影响的门槛效应分析——基于环境规制视角

以环境规制强度为门槛变量，运用门槛模型研究双向外商直接投资对我国碳排放的影响，验证在不同环境规制强度下，对内和对外直接投资是否存在碳的“污染天堂”效应。研究发现：我国不存在外商直接投资带来的“污染避难所”“污染天堂”等效应。我国实际利用外商直接投资的碳减排效果显著，环境规制强度不同，减排效果不同，随着环境规制强度增强，减排效果会出现反弹迹象。对外直接投资对碳排放的影响呈“倒U型”分布，当环境规制强度较低时，对外直接投资的扩张会显著增加碳排放量，随着环境规制强度的不断加强，抑制碳排放的效果不断增强。现阶段技术溢出产生的减排效果中，外商直接投资的减排效果明显优于对外直接投资，这是由于现阶段我国正处于对外直接投资的发展初期，而实际利用外商直接投资已经进入中后期。

THRESHOLD EFFECT OF TWO-WAY FDI ON CHINA'S CARBON EMISSION VIEWING FROM ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS

This paper, taking environmental regulation intensity as threshold variable, uses threshold model to study the impact of two-way FDI on China's carbon emission in order to check if there is carbon pollution paradise effect from IFDI（inward foreign direct investment） and OFDI（outward foreign direct investment） under different environmental regulation intensities. The result is no. IFDI plays a key role in carbon emission in China varying with environmental regulation intensities; carbon emission will reduce as environmental regulation intensities tighten. OFDI's impact on carbon emission shows an upside-down U shape that carbon emission will soar if OFDI expands when environmental regulation intensities descend, and that carbon emission will be restrained when environmental regulation intensities tighten. Among carbon emission reduction effects from technical overflow, IFDI exceeds OFDI in that China is at the initial stage of OFDI, but at middle to late stage of actual use of IFDI.