基于VAR模型的河北省水资源利用与经济增长的动态关系研究

河北省是我国水资源重度缺乏的省份，人均水资源量占全国人均水资源量的1/11，水资源短缺与经济高速平稳发展之间的矛盾日益突出。本文基于VAR模型，利用河北省2000-2015年总用水量、工业用水量、农业用水量、GDP总量、农业增加值、工业增加值相关数据，通过平稳性检验、协整性检验、Granger因果关系、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析，对河北省水资源利用与经济增长的动态关系进行分析。结果表明：1）河北省经济增长与总用水量，农业用水量与工业用水量之间存在协整关系；2）水资源利用与经济增长之间呈单向Granger因果关系；3）经济增长对总用水量及总用水量对经济增长的脉冲响应累计值均为负，农业增加值对农业用水量的脉冲响应累计值为正，农业用水量对农业增加值的脉冲响应累计值为负，工业增加值对工业用水量及工业用水量对工业增加值的脉冲响应累计值均为负；4）除农业增加值对农业用水量的贡献度和工业用水对工业增加值的贡献度较高以外，经济增长对水资源利用量的贡献度均比较小。 

DYNAMIC INTERACTION BETWEEN WATER RESOURCE USE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN HEBEI PROVINCE BASED ON VAR MODEL

Hebei province lacks water resource, about 1/11 of water resource per capita in China, resulting in a rising conflict between water shortage and economic growth. This paper, based on VAR model and Hebei's gross water use, industrial waste use, agricultural water use, GDP, agricultural added values and industrial added values during 2000-2015, uses stability test, co-integration test, Grander causality, pulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the interaction between water resource use and economic growth in Hebei province, with results showing a co\|integration between economic growth and gross water use, agricultural water use and industrial water use, and a one-way Granger causality between water resource use and economic growth. The cumulative pulse response of economic growth to gross water use is negative, and vise verse, that of agricultural added value to agricultural water use is positive, but agricultural water use to agricultural added value negative, both industrial added value to industrial water use and industrial water use to industrial added value negative. Except a higher contribution in agricultural added value to agricultural water use and industrial water use to industrial added value, economic growth has a less contribution to water use.